UNITED NATIONS: The
United Nations on Thursday slashed its forecast for world growth to 2.6
percent in 2012 and warned the eurozone debt crisis could further
undermine the global performance.
"The world economy is teetering
on the brink of another major downturn," the UN said in a warning that
came as the International Monetary Fund said it would also lower its
global growth forecast.
After rising 4.0 percent in 2010, the UN
predicted 2.6 percent world growth in 2012 and 3.2 percent in 2013. UN
economists had earlier said there would be 3.6 percent growth next year.
"This
forecast is conditioned however on containment of the eurozone debt
crisis and a halt to further moves toward stringent fiscal austerity in
developed countries," said the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects
report.
It said 2012 will be a "make or break year" with the
world proceeding with slow economic recovery or falling back into
recession.
Developing countries, led by China, Brazil and India,
are predicted to continue pulling the world economy forward with average
growth of 5.4 percent in 2012 and 5.8 percent in 2013. But even this is
down from 7.1 percent in 2010.
"From the second quarter of 2011,
economic growth in most developing countries and economies in
transition started to slow notably," said the report which hit out at
governments in Europe and North America.
The UN revised down its
2012 prediction for every major country and region: it now foresees 1.3
percent growth in the United States, down 0.7 percent from its last
forecast, 1.5 percent for Japan (down 1.3 percent), 0.5 percent for the
27 nation European Union (down 0.8 percent), 8.7 percent for China (down
0.2 percent), 7.7 percent for India (down 0.5 percent) and 3.7 percent
for South Africa (down 1.1 percent).
In Latin America, Brazil's 2012 growth was put at just 2.7 percent, down 2.6 percent from the earlier forecast.
"Failure
of policymakers, especially those in Europe and the United States, to
address the jobs crisis and prevent debt distress and financial sector
fragility from escalating, poses the most acute risk for the global
economy," the forecast said.
"Because of collective inaction, the
situation is likely to deteriorate further," Jomo Kwame Sundaram, UN
assistant secretary general for economic development, told a press
conference to introduce the report.
"Unfortunately the likelihood of the pessimistic scenario is increasingly likely," he added.
The
sovereign debt crises in Europe is a "cause and an effect" of the
global slowdown while the United States is also suffering from
unemployment and "shaken consumer and business confidence," said the
report.
As the European and US economies are so close "their
problems could easily feed into each other and spread to another global
recession," the UN warned.
The IMF said Europe's worsening
economy and financial market turmoil meant it was likely to revise
downward its predictions made in its World Economic Outlook report
issued in October.
"We will likely be revising downwards our forecast," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told news briefing, without elaborating.
"The
global recovery remains unbalanced and bumpy. Since that WEO there has
been a marked slowdown in economic activity, especially as we all known,
in Europe. The turmoil in the financial market is also contributing to
further uncertainty about the economic forecast."
An update will be made in January, Rice added.
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