MADRID - Spanish borrowing costs have soared to a euro-era record
high on a market beset by doubts over a vast rescue loan for the
country's banks and by fears of a Greek exit from the eurozone.
The euro came under more pressure in early trading Wednesday,
unconvinced by the deal struck by the 17 eurozone nations over the
weekend to extend Spain a banking sector rescue loan of up 100 billion
euros (S$156 billion).
Two major concerns stood out: doubts over Spain's outlook even with
the eurozone rescue, and Greek elections on Sunday, which in a
worst-case scenario could send Athens back to using the drachma.
Adding to Spanish agony, Fitch Ratings on Tuesday downgraded 18 more
Spanish banks a day after cutting its ratings on the two biggest banks,
Santander and BBVA, despite the massive sector bailout.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while hailing Spain's request for a
banking bailout, stressed it would come with strings attached, as she
warned Europe that halting reforms would be "disastrous".
"There will of course be conditionality for Spain, when the
application comes, namely a restructuring of its own banking system to
make it fit for the future," Merkel said in a speech to members of her
conservative CDU party in Berlin.
It is now impossible to say how things may turn out, warned Edward Hugh, an independent economist based in Barcelona.
"This thing is like an express train accelerating towards the buffers in the station," he said.
"You have got this cocktail now with the Greek elections coming this
weekend and talk of capital controls over Greece, you have got Italy
coming back into the line of fire and then you have got this uncertainty
about Spain."
Spain's benchmark 10-year government bond yield spiked to 6.834 per
cent, the highest since the creation of the euro, and by late afternoon
was at 6.716 per cent - a rate regarded as unsustainable over the longer
term.
The nation's risk premium - - the extra rate investors demand to hold
its 10-year bonds over their safer German counterparts - hit 5.43
percentage points, not far from the euro-era record of 5.48 percentage
points struck shortly before the banking rescue.
Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti insisted that his country will not need a bailout to survive the economic debt crisis.
In an interview with German radio, Monti tried to damp down the
rumours that Rome is at risk of contagion, calling on the markets and
financial observers "not to be governed by cliches or prejudices."
However markets also punished Italy, at risk of being the next domino
to fall in the eurozone crisis as it struggles to boost growth and
confronts a public debt mountain of 1.9 trillion euros.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield leapt to a high of 6.301 per cent from the previous day's closing level of 6.032 per cent.
Far from calming the markets, the rescue for Spain exposed a string
of new doubts over the impact on the debt; how it will be implemented;
and whether it will be just the first rescue for a nation struggling to
cut deficits in a period of recession and sky-high unemployment.
Spain is expected formally to seek the loan at a eurozone finance
ministers' meeting June 21, and a final figure would come after a review
by the European Union, European Central Bank and IMF, officials said.
A report by Barclays Capital analysts said that a loan of 70-80
billion euros would push up Spain's public debt by 7.0-7.5 percentage
points from the end-2011 level of 68.5 per cent of economic output.
One key concern for bond buyers is whether the eurozone bailout for
Spain will tap the incoming bailout fund, the European Stability
Mechanism (ESM), whose debt takes priority for repayment over ordinary
investors in a time of crisis.
Tiny Cyprus added to the gloom.
Cyprus Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly told journalists on Monday
that his country had an "exceptionally urgent" need for a bailout to
recapitalise its banks by June 30, according to The Wall Street Journal.
On Tuesday, Moody's ratings agency downgraded two Cyprus banks citing
their large exposure to a possible Greek exit from the eurozone,
including chopping its rating for Bank of Cyprus by one notch to B2 from
B1.
The big spectre, however, remains Greece, and the prospect that the
anti-austerity party Syriza will win elections on Sunday, rejecting the
terms of Athens' international bailout and leading possibly to its
departure from the 17-nation single currency bloc.
Meanwhile the World Bank on Tuesday warned developing countries to
boost their defences against Europe's debt crisis, predicting years of
volatility in a flailing global economy.
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