WASHINGTON - Americans have given President Barack Obama the benefit
of doubt that he has the best fix for the ailing US economy.
In reality, there may not be much he can do to speed up growth and employment.
Obama edged out Republican Mitt Romney in the race for the White
House on Tuesday, a victory made more difficult by voter frustrations
over the sluggish pace of the economy's recovery and worries about
sky-high public debt.
The president's best chance to kick-start faster growth is to remove
the recession threat posed by the US$600 billion (S$733 billion) in tax
hikes and government spending cuts known as the "fiscal cliff,"which is
already weighing on business investment decisions.
And all the better if he can do that in concert with securing a
longer-term deal that puts the budget on a more sustainable path - a
tall order given the still-divided nature of Washington politics.
"Obama will have to nail down some of these fiscal issues in order to
get the economy moving quickly," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at
Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania."If he is unable to do
that, we're going to be stuck."
The world's largest economy has struggled to achieve anything like
strong growth since climbing out of the deep 2007-09 recession.
Annual gross domestic product expanded by an average of just 2.1 per
cent over the last two years.
Only about 4.5 million of the 8.7 million
jobs lost during the downturn have been recouped. About 23 million
Americans are either unemployed or underemployed, many of them having to
settle for part-time work.
Not only is government borrowing at an unsustainably high rate, with a
debt now towering over $16 trillion, but the recession left lasting
scars on the labour market that is likely to keep unemployment elevated
for years to come.
What's more, growth is slowing overseas, crimping US exports.
POLITICAL GRIDLOCK REMAINS
While Obama's Democrats retained control of the Senate, Republicans
kept their grip on the House of Representatives, maintaining
Washington's political gridlock.
During his first term, Obama was unable to bridge the divide between
the two parties over how to trim the budget deficit and there is little
to suggest it will be easier this time around.
He has called for slashing the deficit by more than US$4 trillion
over a 10-year period through raising taxes for wealthy Americans and
cutting defence spending, two steps that are unpopular with Republicans.
"Dealing with partisanship and gridlock in Congress will remain a
major challenge, today's election result certainly does not make the
situation any easier," said Harm Bandholz, chief US economist UniCredit
Research in New York.
Full implementation of Obama's deficit-cutting plan would dent growth
in 2013, and some economists expect he would offer some form of tax
relief for households to soften the blow.
LEGACY OF A CRISIS
Even if Obama manages to strike a deficit deal with Congress, it
would likely add only a few tenths of a percentage point to economic
growth given that it would not address the main problem holding the
recovery back: the massive loss of wealth during the recession.
Median family net worth dropped 38 per cent between 2007 and 2010 as
housing prices plummeted, the biggest decline for any period on record,
and almost 11 million Americans are estimated to owe more on their
mortgages than their homes are worth.
In addition, many of the jobs lost during the recession, particularly
in construction and other housing-related areas like finance, may never
come back. That could leave much of the US workforce lacking the skills
employers need.
"The job situation is going to be problematic because my reading is
the unemployment we suffer is to some large degree structural," said
Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago.
"Even a strong economy will have a hard time reducing the employment
rate to below 7 per cent."
The jobless rate stood at 7.9 per cent in October.
The economy is also being buffeted by the debt crisis in Europe and
cooling demand in China, which has undermined demand for US businesses.
Exports had accounted for about a third of growth since the recession
ended.
"We are in a globalised economy with no healthy global engine for
economic growth. That's a problem that cannot be easily fixed by Obama,"
said Laurenti.
Obama wins re-election, makes history again
WASHINGTON - US President Barack Obama swept to re-election
Tuesday, creating history again by defying the undertow of a slow
economic recovery and high unemployment to beat Republican foe Mitt
Romney.
Obama became only the second Democrat to win a second four-year White
House term since World War II, when television networks projected he
would win the bellwether state of Ohio where he had staged a pitched
battle with Romney.
"This happened because of you. Thank you," Obama tweeted to his 22
million followers on Twitter as a flurry of states, including Iowa,
which nurtured his unlikely White House dreams suddenly tipped into his
column.
With a clutch of swing states, including Florida and Virginia
still to be declared, Obama already had 275 electoral votes, more than
the 270 needed for the White House and looked set for a comfortable
victory.
There was a sudden explosion of jubilation at Obama's Chicago victory
party as the first African American president, who was elected on a
wave of hope and euphoria four years ago, booked another four years in
the White House.
Romney's aides had predicted that a late Romney wave would sweep
Obama from office after a single term haunted by a sluggish recovery
from the worst economic crisis since the 1930s Great Depression and high
unemployment.
But a huge cheer rang out at Obama headquarters when television
networks projected Obama would retain Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral
votes, and the party grew wilder as they called Wisconsin and Michigan.
The mood at Romney headquarters in Boston however had grown subdued
throughout the evening as partisans stared at their smart phones.
Disappointed Republicans were seen leaving what had been billed as a
celebration of Romney's expected triumph in central Washington.
Defeats in New Hampshire, where Romney has a summer home and
Wisconsin, the home of Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan
were especially sickening for Republicans.
Early signs were that the election, while a building triumph for
Obama would do little to ease the deep polarisation afflicting US
politics, as Republicans racked up huge margins in safe states, though
struggled in battlegrounds.
Exit polls appeared to vindicate the vision of the race offered by
Obama's campaign, when top aides predicted that Obama's armies of
African American, Latinos and young voters would come out in droves.
Polls also showed that though only 39 per cent of people believed
that the economy was improving, around half of Americans blamed
President George W. Bush for the tenuous situation, and not Obama.
The president, who made history by becoming America's first black
president after a euphoric victory, carved a new precedent on Tuesday by
defying the portents of a hurting economy to win a second term.
He awaited his fate in his hometown of Chicago, while Romney, a
multi-millionaire former investment manager and Massachusetts governor
was laying low in a hotel in Boston awaiting results.
As expected, television networks projected that Republicans would win the House of Representatives.
Democrats clung onto the Senate, and retained a seat in Missouri,
where Senator Claire McCaskill fended off a challenge by Representative
Todd Akin, whose remarks about rape and abortion sparked national
outrage.
Both presidential candidates had earlier marked time while voters dictated their fates.
Romney appeared caught up in the emotion of seeing his name on the
ballot for President of the United States and also saw an omen in a huge
crowd that showed up at a multi-story parking lot to see his plane land
at Pittsburgh airport.
"Intellectually I felt that we're going to win this and I've felt that for some time," Romney told reporters on his plane.
"But emotionally, just getting off the plane and seeing those people
standing there... I not only think we're going to win intellectually but
I feel it as well."
While Romney penned his victory speech, Obama took part in his
election day tradition of playing a game of pick-up basketball with
friends, including Chicago Bulls legend Scottie Pippen, after visiting a
campaign office near his Chicago home.
The president, who like a third of Americans voted before election
day, congratulated Romney on "a spirited campaign" despite their
frequently hot tempered exchanges.
"I know that his supporters are just as engaged and just as
enthusiastic and working just as hard today. We feel confident we've got
the votes to win, that it's going to depend ultimately on whether those
votes turn out," he said.
"I think anybody who's running for office would be lying if they say
that there's not some butterflies before the polls come in because
anything can happen," the president added later in a radio interview.
CBS News, quoting early exit polls, said 39 per cent of people
approached after they had voted said the economy, the key issue, was
improving, while 31 per cent said it was worse and 28 saw it as staying
the same.
Voters were also choosing a third of the Democratic-led Senate and
the entire Republican-run House of Representatives. But, with neither
chamber expected to change hands, the current political gridlock will
likely continue.
The US presidential election is not directly decided by the popular
vote, but requires candidates to pile up a majority - 270 - of 538
electoral votes awarded state-by-state on the basis of population.
A candidate can therefore win the nationwide popular vote and still
be deprived of the presidency by falling short in the Electoral College.
The election went ahead in New Jersey with thousands of people
without power, and large areas devastated by superstorm Sandy which
roared ashore last week killing more than 100 people.
Adora Agim, an immigrant from Nigeria, said the chaos shouldn't stop
voting. "I have lived in a Third World country where your vote does not
matter.
It's nice to be somewhere where it matters," she said, in Hoboken,
New Jersey. The central message of Obama's campaign has been that he
saved America from a second Great Depression after the economy was on
the brink of collapse when he took over from Republican president George
W. Bush in 2009.
He claims credit for ending the war in Iraq, saving the US auto
industry, killing Osama bin Laden, offering almost every American health
insurance, and passing the most sweeping Wall Street reform in decades.
Romney sought to mine frustration with the slow pace of the
economic recovery and argued that the president was out of ideas and has
no clue how to create jobs, with unemployment at 7.9 per cent and
millions out of work.
Rape row Republican loses Senate race in Missouri: Networks
WASHINGTON - Barack Obama's Democrats were on a path Tuesday to
retain control of the Senate, holding on to a key seat in Missouri where
the losing Republican candidate triggered a firestorm with comments
about "legitimate rape."
Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill managed to fend off a challenge
by Representative Todd Akin, whose remarks about rape and abortion
sparked national outrage and prompted calls from his fellow Republicans
to withdraw from the race.
Obama wins key state of New Hampshire: Networks
WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama defeated Republican
challenger Mitt Romney in the crucial battleground of New Hampshire, US
television networks projected on Tuesday.
The triumph for Obama could help pave his way to re-election and
spelled worrisome news for Romney's bid for the White House, as his
campaign had pushed hard to prevail in the northeastern state that
carries four electoral votes.
Democrats pick up Senate seat in Massachusetts: Networks
WASHINGTON - The Democrats picked up a Senate seat Tuesday in
Massachusetts, US media reported, in another discouraging sign for their
Republican rivals trying to regain the majority in the upper chamber.
Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard professor and liberal firebrand who led
the creation of a consumer protection bureau, defeated Senator Scott
Brown, US television networks projected.
The seat was held for years by a lion of the Democratic party, the late Ted Kennedy.
Obama wins battleground Wisconsin: Networks
WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama on Tuesday won the
battleground state of Wisconsin, depriving Mitt Romney of a key target
that could help him win the White House, US television networks
projected.
Wisconsin has not voted for a Republican president since Ronald
Reagan in 1984, but Romney picked Representative Paul Ryan from the
Midwestern state as his running mate and both candidates campaigned
heavily there.
With losses in Wisconsin and Romney's Massachusetts, the ticket
becomes the first since George McGovern and Sargent Shriver in 1972 in
which both the presidential and vice presidential candidates lost their
home states.
WASHINGTON - Republican White House hopeful Mitt Romney picked up his
first wins in two safe states on Tuesday while President Barack Obama
won Vermont as expected, US television networks reported.
Romney won in Indiana and Kentucky, two states traditionally in the
Republican column, and Obama prevailed in left-leaning Vermont,
according to projections from US networks as polls closed in six states.
Polls also closed in Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia, although
officials allowed polling to continue where there were long lines.
Networks said Virginia – which Obama won when he was first elected in
2008 and which would be vital in almost any Romney victory strategy –
was too close to call, based on early exit polls and a small number of
reported results.
The final opinion polls published before polling began showed the two
candidates in a dead heat nationwide, but gave Obama a slight advantage
in the handful of swing states like Virginia that will decide the race.
Each state has a quota of electoral college votes based on its
population, and the eventual victor will be the candidate who tallies
the most.
Polling was due to end in Ohio, the most important of the swing
states, at 7:30 pm (0030 GMT), but reliable results were not expected
for hours.
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