US Senate's 'fiscal cliff' bill adds $4.8 trillion to deficits -CBO

WASHINGTON - The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday said Senate-passed legislation to avert the "fiscal cliff" would add nearly US$4 trillion (S$4.8 trillion) to federal deficits over a decade, largely because it would extend low tax rates for almost all Americans.

The congressional scorekeeper's analysis was released as a number of Republicans in the House of Representatives voiced opposition to the bill, and considered amending it with deeper spending cuts.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and others complained the bill's spending cuts would do little to curb trillion-dollar deficits.

Senate-passed plan extends decade-old Bush-era tax rates for individuals earning up to US$400,000 and couples earning up to US$450,000 - nearly 99 per cent of US taxpayers.

But the non-partisan CBO compared the Senate plan's revenue and expenditure changes to laws that are currently in force, which call for US$600 billion in tax hikes and automatic spending cuts in 2013 alone - effectively a dive off the fiscal cliff.

With Congress feverishly working to avoid the fiscal cliff in recent weeks, many Washington policymakers had viewed the current-law budget "baseline" as unlikely to be maintained.

Compared to an alternative CBO scenario in which Congress extends all expiring tax provisions and turns off automatic spending cuts slated to start taking effect this week, the Senate plan achieves minimal deficit reduction in the early years.

Over 10 years, deficits under the Senate plan would be US$3.75 trillion less than permanently extending all of the tax and spending policies in the alternative scenario. That is largely because the CBO expects that remaining on an unsustainable fiscal path would severely constrict economic growth later in the decade, holding back revenue growth and keeping outlays higher.

Fiscal 2013 Effects 

By going over the fiscal cliff, the CBO had previously forecast that the higher taxes and lower spending would slash the fiscal 2013 US budget deficit by more than half, to US$641 billion from US$1.1 trillion the prior year.

But in its analysis of the Senate-passed plan, the CBO said fiscal 2013 revenues would be US$280 billion lower and spending US$50 billion higher, resulting in a US$330 billion deficit increase, for a total deficit of around US$971 billion.

Under the CBO's keep-taxes-unchanged scenario, the deficit would be US$1.04 trillion for fiscal 2013.

None of the CBO's analyses takes into consideration possible future spending cuts and reforms to federal health care and retirement programs that Congress might make in a new budget battle emerging around mid-February over the next increase in the US debt limit.

Bernanke steps up warning over fiscal cliff

WASHINGTON: US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke stepped up his warning Tuesday over the looming 'fiscal cliff,' saying its mandatory tax hikes and spending cuts pose a "substantial threat" to the country's economic recovery.

With government leaders locked in crunch talks on avoiding the cliff and slashing the budget deficit, Bernanke said that rising cuts to federal government spending were already holding back economic growth.

"Congress and the administration will need to protect the economy from the full brunt of the severe fiscal tightening at the beginning of next year that is built into current law -- the so-called fiscal cliff," the US central bank chief said in a speech in New York.

"The realization of all of the automatic tax increases and spending cuts that make up the fiscal cliff, absent offsetting changes, would pose a substantial threat to the recovery," he said, according to the prepared text.

"Indeed, by the reckoning of the Congressional Budget Office and that of many outside observers, a fiscal shock of that size would send the economy toppling back into recession."

Bernanke said the Fed already views growth as disappointingly slow and troubled by threats from the eurozone crisis, slow job creation and the reticence of banks to loosen lending standards -- which Bernanke said is holding back recovery in the housing sector.

The unemployment rate, currently 7.9 percent, remains "well above" what Fed officials want to see, Bernanke said, adding that the country has "some way to go before the labour market can be deemed healthy again."

But Bernanke pointed out that pressures to wind up the stimulus programs and other policy actions designed to pull the country out of recession, and stepped-up efforts to rapidly reduce the federal budget deficit, are now "restraining" gross domestic product growth.

"Indeed, under almost any plausible scenario, next year the drag from federal fiscal policy on GDP growth will outweigh the positive effects on growth from fiscal expansion at the state and local level," he said.

Bernanke's warning came as the White House and top officials from Congress are locked in talks to avert the cliff and set a long-term plan for reducing the deficit, which has topped $1 trillion a year for four years running.

The cliff comprises two challenges: a drastic spending reduction program, and the expiration of a broad range of "temporary" tax decreases.

Both are to take place on January 1, and together would suck at least $500 billion out of the economy, forcing it into recession.

Republicans and Democrats though have sharply differed on what kind of long-term spending reductions and increases in tax revenues should be put in place to replace the cliff.

Bernanke said that the deficit is "on an unsustainable path," requiring a "credible framework" to stabilize and reduce the country's debt and deficit load.

But he warned policy makers "to avoid unnecessarily adding to the headwinds that are already holding back the economic recovery."

"Preventing a sudden and severe contraction in fiscal policy early next year will support the transition of the economy back to full employment."