WASHINGTON: The
International Monetary Fund stepped up its warnings Monday on risks to
the global economy, mainly from the crisis-mired eurozone, as it trimmed
its growth forecast for the rest of the year.
IMF economists
said that the frail situations in Spain and Italy especially could
quickly turn worse amid market doubts over eurozone leaders' resolve in
implementing pledged reforms.
But they also pointed to the US
"fiscal cliff" trajectory which, if not corrected, could crunch the US
economy and heavily impact the rest of the world.
"In the past
three months, the global recovery, which was not strong to start with,
has shown signs of further weakness," the fund said in its quarterly
economic forecast.
"Financial market and sovereign stress in the
euro-area periphery have ratcheted up," it said, while growth has fallen
below expectations in a number of major emerging-market economies.
If policy reactions in major economies remain inadequate or too slow, the IMF said, fissures could deepen, they added.
"The main risk is obvious," IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard told reporters.
"It
is that the vicious circle in Spain and Italy becomes stronger, that
output falls even more than it does, that one of these countries loses
its financial access to markets," he told reporters.
"The implications of such an event could easily derail the world recovery."
The
IMF said that largely due to sharper-than-expected slowdowns in newly
industrialized Asia and in large emerging economies like China, India,
and Brazil, it had cut 0.1 per cent off its April forecast for global
growth, to a rounded 3.5 per cent.
For 2013, the forecast is 3.9 per cent, down from 4.1 per cent.
Emerging
economies were generally taking correct measures to deal with
slowdowns, the IMF said. But many "have also been hit by increases in
investor risk aversion and perceived growth uncertainty, which have led
not only to equity price declines, but also to capital outflows and
currency depreciation."
Growth forecasts were also cut for the
United States, to 2.0 per cent; Britain, to 0.2 per cent, and France, to
0.3 per cent. In Spain, the recession will persist through 2013, the
Fund said.
On the bright side, forecasts for this year for
Germany and Japan were revised higher -- to 1.0 per cent and 2.4 per
cent, respectively, though the 2013 prediction for each was also trimmed
slightly.
Also getting an upgrade was the Middle East and North
Africa region, much of which has been struggling through deep political
turmoil in the past two years. The IMF said the region would grow about
5.5 per cent this year, much better than the 4.2 per cent predicted in
April.
The IMF said that major economies were making progress on
cutting their fiscal deficit burdens, despite stiff challenges in
risk-averse debt markets which have sent the borrowing costs of the
troubled eurozone periphery countries skyrocketing.
The global
lender reiterated its prescriptions of recent months: short-term fiscal
balance targets for troubled economies like Spain and Italy can be
de-emphasized to allow for growth while more focus is placed on
medium-term adjustments and reforms.
"A steady pace of adjustment
focused on the measures to be implemented rather than on headline
deficit targets is preferable, especially in light of heightened
downside risks to the outlook."
Moreover, the IMF suggested, the
political stress of too much austerity -- set to meet fiscal targets --
could backfire in countries with IMF or IMF-linked bailout programs,
like Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
"The recent deterioration in
the political and economic climate in Greece serves as a warning about
the potential onset of 'adjustment fatigue,' which remains a threat to
continued program implementation."
Meanwhile the IMF singled out
the overhanging risk from US political stasis that could send the
country over a "fiscal cliff" due to laws that, if not changed, will
force massive government spending cuts coupled with automatic tax hikes
on January 1 which would severely crunch the world's largest economy.
"Avoiding
the fiscal cliff, promptly raising the debt ceiling, and developing a
medium-term fiscal plan are of the essence," the global crisis lender
said in recommendations for the United States.
No comments:
Post a Comment