Singapore's economy grows 1.1% on-year for Q4 2012

SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy performed better than expected in the fourth quarter despite talks of a technical recession.

The economy grew by 1.8 per cent, an upturn from the contraction of 6.3 per cent in the preceding quarter. It also grew at a modest pace of 1.1 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2012, an improvement from the flat growth in the previous quarter.

For the whole of 2012, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.2 per cent. This is slightly lower than MTI's growth forecast of around 1.5 per cent, as weakness in the manufacturing sector continued to weigh down on the economy.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the manufacturing sector contracted by an annualised rate of 10.8 per cent, extending the 9.9 per cent decline in the previous quarter. This largely reflected the continued weakness in the output of the electronics cluster.

On a year-on-year basis, the sector contracted by 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, following the 1.6 per cent decline in the preceding quarter.

The construction sector grew by 5.9 per cent on-year, moderating from the 7.7 per cent growth in the preceding quarter.

Singapore's economy grew 1.8% in Q4, dodged recession

SINGAPORE - Singapore's economy grew 1.8 per cent in the fourth quarter from the preceding three months at an annualised rate and after seasonal adjustments, defying expectations it would go into recession.

Manufacturing was the worst-performing sector in the trade-dependent Southeast Asian city-state, shrinking 10.8 per cent at a quarter-on-quarter annualised and seasonally adjusted rate.

But services provided some positive news, rising 7.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

From a year earlier, economic growth was 1.1 per cent in the fourth quarter and 1.2 per cent for the whole year, below the government's forecast of around 1.5 per cent for 2012 and far weaker than the 4.9 per cent expansion in 2011.

Key points:

Singapore, whose trade is around three times its gross domestic product, last had a recession in 2009.

The median estimate of economists polled by Reuters was for a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.9 per cent and year-on-year growth of 0.9 per cent.

 

Commentary: 

Michael Wan, Economist at Credit Suisse:

"The Q4 numbers were a surprise partly because of what the prime minister said. We thought there would be a technical recession."

"However, services also brought the Q4 growth up in spite of the weakness in manufacturing. Manufacturing was also not as weak as industrial production numbers implied. This contributed to the upward surprise."

"For 2013, we still expect growth to be weak at 2 per cent. We expect employment growth will start to moderate this year. It was stronger than expected last year, with companies hoarding labour in anticipation of tighter foreign labour rules."

"We also expect more companies to relocate and shift out of Singapore."

Selena Ling, Head of Treasury research at OCBC:

"We escaped recession by the skin of our teeth because Q2 and Q3 numbers were revised lower."

"Manufacturing still looks weak as seen from the double-digit decline (quarter-on-quarter and annualised). Near term, it's hard to see any improvement in manufacturing."

"On the positive side, there is a rebound in momentum. Hopefully, services can provide the lift ... A recovery may come earlier than expected because the Q2 numbers have been revised down, providing a lower base."

Joey Chew, Economist at Barclays:

"It's a pleasant surprise we managed to avoid a recession. The whole reason is because the first two quarters were revised lower."

"Manufacturing has contracted for three quarters in a row now, which is expected given industrial production numbers. Services grew a little better than expected. Perhaps some of the financial or tourism related industries did rebound from Q3."

"We expect Singapore to grow 2.1 per cent in 2013. Even though we had originally expected Singapore to go into recession in Q4, we thought it would have been short lived."

"There will be weak growth in Q1 but a more sustainable recovery from Q2 onwards. Q1 will still be precarious for the US economy, there's still uncertainties surrounding the fiscal cliff situation, debt ceiling etc. There will be some tightening that will affect households and corporates."

Market reaction:
The Singapore dollar was trading around 1.2217 to the US dollar compared with 1.2213 before the data.

Background
 

- In a revision, the economy shrank 6.3 per cent in the third quarter from April-June at a seasonally adjusted and annualised rate. The previously announced number was a 5.9 per cent contraction.

- Singapore has been badly hit by weakness in Western economies that has crimped demand for many of its exports.

- The city-state's electronic manufacturers have also failed to tap surging demand for smart phones, unlike rivals such as South Korea and Taiwan. For the first 11 months of 2012, electronics production fell 11.1 per cent compared with the same period of 2011, underscoring the weakness in export markets.

Singapore's Q3 GDP grows by 1.3% on-year

SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy grew by 1.3 percent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of 2012, compared to 2.3 per cent growth in the previous quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy contracted by 1.5 percent, a reversal from a growth of 0.2 percent in the second quarter.

Releasing the advance GDP estimates for the third quarter on Friday, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said the Singapore economy remains on track to grow by 1.5 to 2.5 percent in 2012.

It said economic growth in the second quarter was better than expected, resulting in an upward revision of quarter-on-quarter annualised growth from the preliminary estimates of -0.7 per cent to 0.2 per cent.

Commenting on the various sectors, MTI said the pullback in quarter-on-quarter growth momentum in the third quarter was mainly due to contraction in the manufacturing sector. The sector declined by an annualised rate of 3.9 per cent, following the 0.1 per cent contraction in the preceding quarter.

This largely reflected the decline in output of the electronics cluster. On a year-on-year basis, the manufacturing sector grew by 0.7 per cent compared to the 4.6 per cent increase in the preceding quarter.

The construction sector grew by 8.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter, moderating from 10.1 per cent in the previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector contracted by an annualised rate of 7.5 per cent due to a decline in private sector building activities.

Services producing industries rose by 1.1 per cent on a year-on-year basis, following the 0.9 per cent growth in the previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the services producing industries grew by an annualised rate of 0.1 per cent, compared to the 0.4 per cent decline in the preceding quarter.

MTI cautioned that growth could be weighed down by the subdued global economic conditions for the rest of the year. Externally-oriented sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade will be affected by the slowdown in advanced economies.

However, it said there will be modest support to growth from healthy expansion in the transport engineering cluster and construction sector.

Singapore to grow 1.5-2.5% this year: PM Lee

SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy grew 1.7% in the first half of this year and is on track for 1.5% to 2.5% growth for 2012, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his National Day Message.

Prime Minister Lee said the country is doing well against the backdrop of an unsettled world.

But, while the country is a success story today, Mr Lee said the next 20 years will be very different.

And what Singapore becomes depends on what Singaporeans make of it.

He called on Singaporeans to work together so that their children can always find hope of a better future, an inclusive society with a heart, and the best home for themselves.

Which is why a younger group of ministers has been tasked to take a fresh look at policies and engage Singaporeans in the process.

The reality is that the world is not standing still. Emerging economies in Asia are advancing rapidly. And with it, come challenges and opportunities.

Hence, the need to review policies broadly, particularly social and education policies, said Mr Lee.

"To still be a shining red dot twenty years from now, we must rethink our approaches, and reinvent ourselves. We must anticipate changes and prepare for what lies ahead," he said.

"Singaporeans will remain at the heart of all that we do, as we update our policies to best serve our people. Core values such as meritocracy, multi-racialism and financial prudence cannot change. But within these broad principles, we should review what needs to change and where we should act more boldly."

Education Minister Heng Swee Keat will lead this charge with a team of younger ministers.

Mr Lee said they will engage Singaporeans in this review and build a broad consensus on the way forward.

And as Singapore tackles future challenges, Mr Lee said citizens need to ask some fundamental questions: What sort of future do they want? What are their aspirations?

One key strategy is to offer hope for a better future for every new generation of Singaporeans. Hence the focus on meritocracy and education, and the building of an inclusive society where the well off take care of the less fortunate.

"We will equip them with skills and knowledge to thrive in an uncertain world. We must work with parents to bring their children to more equal starting points for primary school, through good and affordable childcare and kindergartens," said PM Lee.

"We will open up more pathways in our education system, to fulfil the diverse aspirations of our young. Let us prepare every child for the test of life, not just a life of tests."

On its part, the government has started to enhance the country's social safety nets, said Mr Lee.

"As new needs have emerged over time, we have enhanced our social safety nets. We introduced ComCare to help the needy, and Workfare for low-income workers," he said.

"Low- and middle-income couples now get Additional Housing Grants to buy HDB flats. In schools, Opportunity Funds enable less well-off students to participate fully in enrichment programmes and study trips."

"This year's Budget was a further major step. We introduced new programmes. The Silver Housing Bonus is benefiting our ageing population. Increased subsidies for home-based care are helping more families with elderly parents. These are not one-off gestures, but a carefully designed package which lays the basis for stronger safety nets for the future," said Mr Lee.

The prime minister said the government will build on these initiatives in a sustainable way.

Also important is the sense of belonging and identity especially in an open globalised world.

Mr Lee acknowledged that this will be harder to nurture with the presence of new immigrants and foreign workers.

"We are managing the inflow to minimise the strains on our infrastructure and society. But Singaporeans must remain confident and open, and welcome those who will strengthen our team and help us and our children do better," he said.

"For their part, new immigrants must make the effort to integrate into our community. They must acquire our social values, our cultural values, adopt our social norms and commit their loyalty and love to Singapore."

Even as the country is open to immigrants, Mr Lee pledged that Singaporeans will be the focus of policies. "Even as we keep our society open to immigrants, we will bring up our own next generation," he said.

"Singaporeans do want to grow their own families. Many couples do wish to have children, and we will do more to support their family life and parenthood," said Mr Lee.

"I am happy that we expect more Dragon babies this year, but our fertility trend is still declining. We must go beyond the Chinese zodiac and tackle the underlying causes of our low birth rates.

"If we can create more supportive social attitudes and work environments, and lighten the burdens of parenthood, we will help couples to have more kids," he said.

For the full text and video of the Prime Minister's message, log on to www.channelnewsasia.com/nd2012

Inflation here to stay sticky, say analysts

Inflationary pressures in Singapore's economy will not be shaken off easily this year, even though inflation will be milder than the 5.2 per cent recorded last year, according to DBS Bank.

The bank, meanwhile, projected a 3.5 per cent growth rate for the Singapore economy this year - 0.5 percentage point higher than the median estimate of 21 private-sector economists and analysts surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DBS revised upwards its inflation forecast for this year, from 4.1 per cent to 4.5 per cent.
For next year, the bank revised its forecast from 2.6 per cent to 3.1 per cent.

Both high Certificate of Entitlement premiums and high property prices will remain the main culprits behind inflation in the near future, DBS economist Irvin Seah said yesterday.

He noted that inadequate provision for housing in previous years has created massive demand in the sector.

UOB economist Alvin Liew held similar views, even though he noted a slide in oil prices. Oil futures hit an eight-month low in US trading yesterday, to US$79.92 (S$102) a barrel.

"It would have some dampening effect on the transport-cost component," Mr Liew noted.

He expects a more pronounced decrease in the inflation rate next month.

Apart from lingering inflation woes, growth is expected to be sluggish in the second half of this year, DBS projects.

"We expect the GDP growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis to fall back to 1 per cent. The chance of a negative is high," Mr Seah said, adding that it will probably negate some of the gains from the first quarter.

The economy expanded by 10 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis in the first quarter of this year.

The manufacturing sector's strong showing boosted the economy in the first quarter this year, but will likely moderate in the second half of the year, due to the downside risks in the global environment.

Mr Seah said that although questions over Greece's exit from the euro zone have been dispelled by the formation of a coalition government yesterday, the European debt crisis is far from over.

The sluggish pace of US recovery and its anaemic labour market, and signs of moderated growth momentum in Asia will impact Singapore's economic performance.

2012 forecast: Economy could do better than expected

Singapore's economy may grow more than previously estimated this year, spurring inflationary pressures, a Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) survey of economists showed.

Gross domestic product may increase 3 per cent this year, compared with last quarter's survey for a 2.5 per cent gain, according to the median estimate of 21 economists and analysts, in a survey by MAS released yesterday.

Consumer prices may rise 4.2 per cent this year, they predicted, higher than the 3.5 per cent rate forecast in March.

Singapore said in April it will allow faster gains in its currency to dampen price pressures, diverging from most other Asian central banks that had left borrowing costs unchanged or eased monetary policy.

The economy grew faster than initially estimated last quarter, and the Government said last month that momentum had picked up, even as downside risks persist.

"We continue to expect decent overall growth in Singapore" once the United States and China regain some momentum in the second half, said Mr Vincent Conti, a Singapore-based analyst at ANZ, in a report on Tuesday.

GDP may increase 2.8 per cent this quarter from a year earlier, compared with 1.6 per cent growth in the three months ended March, economists in the MAS survey predicted.

The Government forecasts GDP growth of 1 per cent to 3 per cent this year. The economy may expand 4.5 per cent next year, the economists said.

The MAS, which uses the exchange rate to manage inflation, said in April it will increase "slightly" the slope of the currency trading band, and raised its forecast for consumer-price gains to 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent this year.

It guides the local dollar against a basket of currencies within an undisclosed band and adjusts the pace of appreciation or depreciation by changing the slope, width and centre of the band.

The Singapore dollar may strengthen to S$1.243 against the US dollar by the end of this year, the economists surveyed said, from S$1.2824 as of 11.25am local time yesterday. In March, they predicted an exchange rate of S$1.23 by year-end.

The Singapore dollar has gained about 1 per cent this year, the second-best performer in a basket of 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Non-oil domestic exports may climb 5.6 per cent this year, more than the 4.2 per cent estimate in the previous survey, the report showed. Singapore's export growth quickened last month as shipments of electronics and pharmaceuticals increased.

The jobless rate may climb to 2.2 per cent by the end of the year, from 2.1 per cent last quarter, the survey showed.

"Labour-market tightness remains a structural issue, as the authorities continue to put restrictions on foreign labour in the midst of close-to-full domestic employment," Mr Conti said.

"This is part of the Government's shift to a productivity driven rather than labour-driven growth model, but adds to inflation risks in the short run."

The Singapore dollar may strengthen to S$1.243 against the US dollar by the end of this year.

S'pore Q1 GDP up 1.6% on-year

SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy grew 1.6 per cent on-year in the first quarter, compared to 3.6 per cent growth in the preceding quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Singapore's economy grew by 10 per cent, reversing the 2.5 per cent contraction in the previous quarter. The figure was slightly higher than the 9.9 percent reported in Advance Estimates released last month.

Singapore is maintaining its economic growth forecast for 2012 at one to three per cent, amid uncertainty in the global economy.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry said any recovery in the global economy remains fragile and vulnerable to downside risks.

It also warned that a disorderly sovereign debt default in the eurozone could not be ruled out, and if it did happen, would pose considerable downsides for the global economy and Singapore's externally oriented industries.

The improved momentum was largely due to the upturn in the manufacturing sector. The sector grew 19.8 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, rebounding strongly from the 11.1 per cent contraction in the previous quarter.

The construction sector, meanwhile, surged 32.1 per cent.

The wholesale and retail sector contracted 2.3 per cent in the first quarter. This weak performance was mainly attributable to a decline in re-export volume, which negatively affected the wholesale trade segment.

The finance and insurance sector contracted for the second time by 3.4 per cent, due to the sluggishness in fund management activities.

S'pore economy grows by 4.9% in 2011

SINGAPORE: The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced on Thursday that the Singapore economy had grown by 4.9 per cent in 2011, after a 14.8 per cent expansion in 2010.

MTI also maintained the growth forecast for 2012 at 1.0 to 3.0 per cent.

The GDP numbers released Thursday have experts and officials agreeing that a recession for Singapore appears less than likely.

"Trade numbers give some hope that we will not slip into recession" said MTI director Thia Jang Ping.

Singapore's real GDP grew by 3.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis in Q4 2011, compared to the 6.0 per cent in Q3.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy contracted by 2.5 per cent, reversing the 2.0 per cent growth in the previous quarter.

On a year-on-year basis, the manufacturing sector grew by 9.2 per cent, slower than the 13.7 per cent growth in Q3.

On a sequential basis, the manufacturing sector contracted by 11.1 per cent, compared to a 11.0 per cent increase in the previous quarter. This was due to a decline across most manufacturing clusters.

The construction sector grew by 2.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis, a slight improvement from the 2.4 per cent growth in the preceding quarter. On a sequential basis, the sector contracted by 2.2 per cent (annualised) largely due to a decline in private residential and commercial building activities.

The wholesale & retail trade and transportation & storage sectors registered relatively weak growth of 0.9 and 2.4 per cent respectively on a year-on-year basis.

On a sequential basis, the wholesale & retail trade sector expanded by an annualised pace of 10.2 per cent, reflecting a pick-up in re-export activities. By contrast, the transportation & storage sector contracted by 2.9 per cent.

Growth in the finance & insurance and business services sectors were modest, at 3.5 and 1.9 per cent respectively on a year-on-year basis.

On a sequential basis, the finance & insurance sector declined by 4.4 per cent (annualised), dragged down by poor performance in the sentiment-sensitive segments such as fund management and stock broking.

Growth momentum in the business services sector picked up slightly to 2.4 per cent.

Singapore's economy grew by estimated 4.8% in 2011

The pace of growth of the Singapore economy eased in the fourth quarter of 2011, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Tuesday.

According to advance estimates, the economy grew by 3.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared to the 5.9 per cent growth in the third quarter, the MTI said in a statement.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, the economy contracted by 4.9 per cent, following the 1.5 per cent gain in the previous quarter.

MTI said that for the whole of 2011, the economy is estimated to have expanded by 4.8 per cent, in line with its growth forecast of around 5.0 per cent for the year.

S'pore's economy to grow 1-3% in 2012

SINGAPORE - Singapore's economy is expected to grow by one to three per cent in 2012, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his New Year message yesterday.

Mr Lee explained that as a small, open country, Singapore will inevitably be affected by the debt problems in Europe as the external environment is uncertain and 2012 looks to be a difficult year for the global economy.

In 2011, Singapore achieved a 4.8 per cent economic growth.

The prime minister also highlighted that the tightening inflow of foreign workers will also slow economic growth.


"Admitting fewer foreign workers also means forgoing business opportunities and accepting slower growth," said Mr Lee. Adding that, Singaporeans must raise productivity, "to make up in quality what we will miss in quantity".

However, Mr Lee said: "Overall, we have every reason to be confident and optimistic."

"Amidst this flux, we need to be confident of our position, and clear about our priorities and plans to build a better Singapore," he emphasised.

The government is working hard to tackle the immediate challenges and the long-term issues to improve Singaporeans' lives.

Among pressing issues, the government is committed to keeping homes affordable to all Singaporeans. In 2012, PM said that there will be another 25,000 new launches of BTO flats.

The government will also redouble efforts to improve the public transport system and expand the train and bus network. He said that more MRT lines are on the way and bus services will be enhanced to improve the daily commuting experience.

In the long run, the prime minister pledged to keep healthcare affordable and accessible, enhance the education system and uphold inclusive growth and social mobility.

Mr Lee noted that population is a "particularly complex and critical challenge," which will be discussed over the year, so that Singaporeans can better understand what is at stake and what choices we must make as a nation.

"I am confident that in a changing world, we will continue to bond as one people and walk shoulder to shoulder into a brighter tomorrow," said Mr Lee, as he wished Singaporeans a happy new year.

Singapore economy to slow to 3% in 2012: MAS survey

SINGAPORE - Singapore's economy will grow by 3.0 per cent in 2012, slowing from an expected 5.2 per cent in 2011 as the global economy and financial services sector cool, according to central bank's survey of private economists released on Wednesday.

The median forecast is at the upper end of the government's growth forecast range of 1-3 per cent for 2012.

The survey also expects the Singapore dollar to strengthen to $1.23 against the US dollar by the end of 2012 from an estimate of S$1.28 by the end of the year. It traded around $1.31 at 0300 GMT.

Asian economies have slowed in recent months, hurt by the euro zone debt crisis that has resulted in weaker demand for the region's exports.


The survey showed that growth in financial services sector in Singapore, which is one of Asia's biggest wealth management centre, is expected to slow to 4.2 per cent in 2012 from a forecast of 9.4 per cent in 2011.

According to the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) latest Survey of Professional Forecasters, economists now expect inflation in the city state to ease to 3.1 per cent next year from 5.1 per cent in 2011.

Singapore, like many Asian countries, is grappling with high inflation even as growth slows because of troubles in Western countries.

Economists in the survey have cut their forecast for this year's growth slightly to 5.2 per cent from 5.3 per cent in the previous survey in September.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the October-December quarter of this year is now expected to be 4.4 per cent year-on-year, compared with 5.9 per cent in the previous survey.

For 2012, growth in financial services is expected to slow to 4.2 per cent from a forecast of 9.4 per cent in 2011.

Last month the Singapore government warned that the city-state's economy could contract in fourth-quarter growth, while 2012 GDP growth is likely to slow due to the weakness in the western economies.

Singapore's economy to grow 1% - 3% next year

Buffeted by global weakness and uncertainty, Singapore's economy is expected to grow at a sluggish 1 to 3 per cent next year, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said on Monday.

And the figure could be even weaker should Europe's debt woes worsen or a full-blown financial crisis erupt in the world's advanced economies, said MTI.

The last time Singapore suffered such weak growth was in 2008, the year the global financial crisis hit, when the economy expanded by just 1.5 per cent. It contracted 0.8 per cent in 2009.

'Global economic conditions are expected to remain subdued in 2012, with the outlook clouded by increased uncertainty and financial volatility,' said MTI.

Singapore exports contract 4.5% in September

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) contracted 4.5 per cent in Sept 2011 compared to a year earlier, due to a 14 per cent decline in electronic NODX outweighing the expansion in non-electronic NODX, IE Singapore said on Monday.

The 14 per cent dip in electronic NODX follows a 19 per cent decline in the previous month. The decrease was largely due to disk drives, which dipped 54 per cent, ICs, and parts of ICs.

Year-on-year, non-electronic NODX expanded a marginal 0.9 per cent in Sept 2011. The rise in non-electronic NODX was led by pharmaceuticals, up 12 per cent, civil engineering equipment parts, up 54 per cent and printed matter, which rose 37 per cent.

On a year-on-year basis, total trade rose by 7.0 per cent in Sept 2011, following the 9.9 per cent growth in the previous month. Total exports expanded by 7.1 per cent in Sept 2011, following the 4.1 per cent increase in the previous month. Total imports grew by 6.8 per cent in Sept 2011, after the 17 per cent increase in the preceding month.

S'pore economy expected to grow 5.0% in 2011

SINGAPORE: Releasing the advance GDP estimates for the third quarter on Friday, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said that the Singapore economy is expected to grow by around 5.0 percent in 2011.

However, inflation is expected to hover at around 5 per cent in 2011, warned the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in a separate statement, before easing to 2.5-3.5 per cent in 2012.

As such, the MAS said it will continue with a policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the S$NEER policy band.

By doing so, the MAS is guiding the Singapore dollar to appreciate at a slower pace, after the currency reached historic highs against the US dollar in July.

The MAS move takes into account estimates for Singapore's economy which saw growth of 5.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of 2011.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew by 1.3 per cent, a reversal from a contraction of 6.3 per cent in the previous quarter.

MTI said the improved economic performance in the third quarter was mainly due to a pick-up in growth in the biomedical manufacturing cluster.

It also cautioned that growth could be weighed down by the softening global economic conditions for the rest of 2011.

It cited the electronics cluster as one area which is expected to remain weak due to the easing of global electronics demand.

Singapore says global recession more likely than not

SINGAPORE - A global recession is "more likely than not" as the US and European economies are at "stall" speed, Singapore's finance minister said on Tuesday.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam told a conference that the world has now "entered a phase where there is a self reinforcing cycle" of a loss of consumer confidence, which is leading companies to hold back on investing.

"Asia will not be immune to a global slowdown," Tharman said. The Singapore economy is highly reliant on international trade.


His comments came a few days after the US employment report for August showed no growth in jobs and the unemployment rate remained at 9.1 per cent, deepening concerns that the world's biggest economy may be tilting toward another recession.

In the latest sign that the economic slowdown may hurt Asia, the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management said on Monday that the manufacturing sector shrank for the second consecutive month in August as companies received fewer orders and kept less inventory.

Fear factor

Are we very afraid yet? Or merely afraid?

Economists and those who make a living spreading dread have increasingly preached approaching doom, so has the gloom filtered down to the heartlands?

Or is the feeling merely one of irrational pessimism?

"Last time, my customers would buy sea bass, grouper, codfish, salmon, some sotong and even Tiger prawns," bemoans Phua Ah Teng, a fishmonger who runs a stall at the wet market at Block 216 Bedok North Street 1.

"Now? Aiyoh, some of them don't spend even $10 at my stall for their weekly marketing."

Uncle Teng, whom I've known since I was a teenager, does not like how his business has dipped in the past months. Times are bad, he tells me.

"Better save your money. But buy some fish from Uncle first lah."

I didn't. Only because we don't really eat fish as a family. Except when it's sashimi at Japanese restaurants.
(And those visits - I have decided after listening to Uncle Teng - shall now be few and far between.)

You see, Uncle Teng, 64, thinks of his business as a barometer for the economy.

He explains: "The sales I do is like the economy's weighing scale for me."

He leans over and whispers: "I order according to demand. On weekends and paydays, better supply. Nah boh leh, sibei cham ("If not, it's very pitiful" in Hokkien).

"And then, sooner or later, you'd see me selling only ikan bilis."

That's because some folks now opt for sea bream instead of sea bass. Cuttlefish instead of squids.

Grey prawns, not Tiger prawns.

Unless it's payday.

Five cans of drink and one cup of kopi cost us $10. The dinner, made up of individual orders of chicken rice, fishball noodles, laksa and western food, totalled another $40-$50.

Scary. "At the rate we're going," I told my son, "Your mum's gonna be broke."

By the way, Singapore's inflation rate is expected to remain high in the next few months, said the Monetary Authority of Singapore in its latest quarterly report on the economy.

But it's sticking to its 4 to 5 per cent forecast for the consumer price index.

Other hawkers are also groaning.

Drinks seller Tang Moi Kheng, who said she had no choice but to raise prices at her stall in Ang Mo Kio Food Centre, says: "If I keep the old prices, how to survive with the rising costs?"

Mr Zhou Bin, a helper at an economy rice stall, has noticed that his customers have cut down on the number of dishes - from four to three or three to two.

"A little penny-pinch here and there, and it would make a difference," he says in Mandarin, referring to both his business and his customer's budget.

Two weeks on the ground - in and out of wet markets and coffee shops - and I decided to impose a new rule on my own family.

I declared: "We're cutting down on eating out. Kids, you are limited to only one can of soft drink, and no, it doesn't matter how thirsty you are."

Son and daughter were horrified. How much really can we save, asked my son.

Food for thought.

Bank officer Cheryl Ho, 43, says: "Food expenses are difficult to cut down on, but we still need to eat, right?"

It's worse for her because she works in Shenton Way and "the food there is even more expensive".

Her family of four have "already cut down on overseas holidays - such as Hong Kong, Australia - and now, can only go to Malaysia".

But what else can she do?

It's a question more frequently heard, with no clear answer.

Mrs Iris Ooi, 44, who owns an exclusive boutique in Bukit Timah Plaza, admits to sleepless nights over rising prices from property to daily needs.

Her daughters are four and seven. She says: "Prices have rocketed ridiculously. Even the price of my daughter's branded milk powder just keeps rising, every other month."

So she resorts to bulk purchases when there's an offer to stock up.

Housewife Fausiah Ahmad, 22, who gave birth to a baby boy last month, wishes she and her despatch rider husband - they married in January last year - had been more careful in family planning.

It's worse now as they will also be getting the keys to their four-room HDB flat in three months.

She says: "The timing is all so salah (wrong in Malay)."

So how?

Oh, no disposable diapers - cloth ones are cheaper as you can wash them, she says.

Is such penny-pinching justified? Is it really reflective of a general siege mentality?

Not if you go by the thousands of bargain hunters at the four-day Comex 2011 (358,000 visitors after just two days) and the anxiety of shoppers to get into the newly-opened H&M store on Orchard Road.

Ms Adele Chia, 37, is not too concerned.

The director of sales and customer management only "just keeps feeling that money is getting smaller".

"Truth is, couples don't really feel the rise that much. If you need to spend, you'll still do so.

"Occasionally, we opt for housebrands or cheaper brands, then we end up thinking, it's just the two of us. How much more expensive can that be?"

It's been a while since I've been bothered by the word "inflation". The last time was when I had to plough through my Economics textbook in Pre-U.

And then there is this perspective from tuition teacher Seow Pei Pei. She and her husband splurged on two trips - one to New Zealand in November and another to South Korea next February - at the recent Natas Fair.

Madam Seow, 32, says: "Look, haven't you heard that all things seem to indicate that 2012 will mark the end of the world?

"You watch the movies - Hong Kong ah, Hollywood ah - and you keep hearing the same thing. So why worry?"

So yes, don't worry, be happy. If you dare.

Riots, rebellion, revolution

Riots, larger than the kind that happened in the United Kingdom last month - but this time over food.

Squatter rebellions. Slums where skyscrapers once stood.

All in the US next year.

Can this really be a picture of the world's richest, most powerful country?

Yes, says Mr Gerald Celente, the chief executive officer of Trends Research Institute.

The man is no wacko conspiracy theorist. He is the best-selling author of Trend Tracking and Trends 2000 and is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events.

He is also widely quoted in newspapers and is sought after for his presence on talk shows like Oprah.

He predicted the 1997 Asian currency crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the devaluation of the US dollar.

"America's going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for," Mr Celente told Fox News.

In another interview, Mr Celente went further.

"There will be a revolution in this country," he said.

"It's not going to come yet, but it's going to come down the line and we're going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: The takeover of Washington, D.C. in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup.

"And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.

"...It's going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless (people), the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we're going to see many more."

"We're going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It's going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It's going to come as a shock and with it, there's going to be a lot of crime."

But one person writing in news sharing website InfoBarrel put things in perspective.

The person wrote: "Simply put, Gerald Celente's predictions for 2012 are purely guess work, although based on logic and data analysing. This means he could be wrong just like anyone else. The fact that he was right before means nothing today.

"...There could very well be some food and tax riots. People riot all the time. This doesn't mean it will be common."