Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Fear factor

Are we very afraid yet? Or merely afraid?

Economists and those who make a living spreading dread have increasingly preached approaching doom, so has the gloom filtered down to the heartlands?

Or is the feeling merely one of irrational pessimism?

"Last time, my customers would buy sea bass, grouper, codfish, salmon, some sotong and even Tiger prawns," bemoans Phua Ah Teng, a fishmonger who runs a stall at the wet market at Block 216 Bedok North Street 1.

"Now? Aiyoh, some of them don't spend even $10 at my stall for their weekly marketing."

Uncle Teng, whom I've known since I was a teenager, does not like how his business has dipped in the past months. Times are bad, he tells me.

"Better save your money. But buy some fish from Uncle first lah."

I didn't. Only because we don't really eat fish as a family. Except when it's sashimi at Japanese restaurants.
(And those visits - I have decided after listening to Uncle Teng - shall now be few and far between.)

You see, Uncle Teng, 64, thinks of his business as a barometer for the economy.

He explains: "The sales I do is like the economy's weighing scale for me."

He leans over and whispers: "I order according to demand. On weekends and paydays, better supply. Nah boh leh, sibei cham ("If not, it's very pitiful" in Hokkien).

"And then, sooner or later, you'd see me selling only ikan bilis."

That's because some folks now opt for sea bream instead of sea bass. Cuttlefish instead of squids.

Grey prawns, not Tiger prawns.

Unless it's payday.

Five cans of drink and one cup of kopi cost us $10. The dinner, made up of individual orders of chicken rice, fishball noodles, laksa and western food, totalled another $40-$50.

Scary. "At the rate we're going," I told my son, "Your mum's gonna be broke."

By the way, Singapore's inflation rate is expected to remain high in the next few months, said the Monetary Authority of Singapore in its latest quarterly report on the economy.

But it's sticking to its 4 to 5 per cent forecast for the consumer price index.

Other hawkers are also groaning.

Drinks seller Tang Moi Kheng, who said she had no choice but to raise prices at her stall in Ang Mo Kio Food Centre, says: "If I keep the old prices, how to survive with the rising costs?"

Mr Zhou Bin, a helper at an economy rice stall, has noticed that his customers have cut down on the number of dishes - from four to three or three to two.

"A little penny-pinch here and there, and it would make a difference," he says in Mandarin, referring to both his business and his customer's budget.

Two weeks on the ground - in and out of wet markets and coffee shops - and I decided to impose a new rule on my own family.

I declared: "We're cutting down on eating out. Kids, you are limited to only one can of soft drink, and no, it doesn't matter how thirsty you are."

Son and daughter were horrified. How much really can we save, asked my son.

Food for thought.

Bank officer Cheryl Ho, 43, says: "Food expenses are difficult to cut down on, but we still need to eat, right?"

It's worse for her because she works in Shenton Way and "the food there is even more expensive".

Her family of four have "already cut down on overseas holidays - such as Hong Kong, Australia - and now, can only go to Malaysia".

But what else can she do?

It's a question more frequently heard, with no clear answer.

Mrs Iris Ooi, 44, who owns an exclusive boutique in Bukit Timah Plaza, admits to sleepless nights over rising prices from property to daily needs.

Her daughters are four and seven. She says: "Prices have rocketed ridiculously. Even the price of my daughter's branded milk powder just keeps rising, every other month."

So she resorts to bulk purchases when there's an offer to stock up.

Housewife Fausiah Ahmad, 22, who gave birth to a baby boy last month, wishes she and her despatch rider husband - they married in January last year - had been more careful in family planning.

It's worse now as they will also be getting the keys to their four-room HDB flat in three months.

She says: "The timing is all so salah (wrong in Malay)."

So how?

Oh, no disposable diapers - cloth ones are cheaper as you can wash them, she says.

Is such penny-pinching justified? Is it really reflective of a general siege mentality?

Not if you go by the thousands of bargain hunters at the four-day Comex 2011 (358,000 visitors after just two days) and the anxiety of shoppers to get into the newly-opened H&M store on Orchard Road.

Ms Adele Chia, 37, is not too concerned.

The director of sales and customer management only "just keeps feeling that money is getting smaller".

"Truth is, couples don't really feel the rise that much. If you need to spend, you'll still do so.

"Occasionally, we opt for housebrands or cheaper brands, then we end up thinking, it's just the two of us. How much more expensive can that be?"

It's been a while since I've been bothered by the word "inflation". The last time was when I had to plough through my Economics textbook in Pre-U.

And then there is this perspective from tuition teacher Seow Pei Pei. She and her husband splurged on two trips - one to New Zealand in November and another to South Korea next February - at the recent Natas Fair.

Madam Seow, 32, says: "Look, haven't you heard that all things seem to indicate that 2012 will mark the end of the world?

"You watch the movies - Hong Kong ah, Hollywood ah - and you keep hearing the same thing. So why worry?"

So yes, don't worry, be happy. If you dare.

Riots, rebellion, revolution

Riots, larger than the kind that happened in the United Kingdom last month - but this time over food.

Squatter rebellions. Slums where skyscrapers once stood.

All in the US next year.

Can this really be a picture of the world's richest, most powerful country?

Yes, says Mr Gerald Celente, the chief executive officer of Trends Research Institute.

The man is no wacko conspiracy theorist. He is the best-selling author of Trend Tracking and Trends 2000 and is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events.

He is also widely quoted in newspapers and is sought after for his presence on talk shows like Oprah.

He predicted the 1997 Asian currency crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the devaluation of the US dollar.

"America's going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for," Mr Celente told Fox News.

In another interview, Mr Celente went further.

"There will be a revolution in this country," he said.

"It's not going to come yet, but it's going to come down the line and we're going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: The takeover of Washington, D.C. in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup.

"And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.

"...It's going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless (people), the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we're going to see many more."

"We're going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It's going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It's going to come as a shock and with it, there's going to be a lot of crime."

But one person writing in news sharing website InfoBarrel put things in perspective.

The person wrote: "Simply put, Gerald Celente's predictions for 2012 are purely guess work, although based on logic and data analysing. This means he could be wrong just like anyone else. The fact that he was right before means nothing today.

"...There could very well be some food and tax riots. People riot all the time. This doesn't mean it will be common."

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