FRANKFURT: The
European Central Bank has broken new ground in the eurozone crisis with
hints that it could start unlimited buying of stricken member states'
bonds to drive down their crippling borrowing costs.
After
initial disappointment at ECB head Mario Draghi's failure to take
immediate action to help ailing countries at a meeting Thursday, many
analysts were more encouraged after giving his remarks a second reading.
Draghi
said the central bank could intervene directly in the bond markets
under a programme known as SMP to help countries left high and dry in
the crisis but this depended on governments holding up their end of the
bargain.
He also said the ECB might consider additional measures
to calm markets which have driven borrowing costs for Italy and Spain
back near to levels that forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek
massive bailouts.
Under the SMP programme launched in May 2010
and suspended four months ago, the ECB had said its purchase of
sovereign bonds was limited in both time and amount.
Christian
Schulz of Berenberg bank said the ECB had "finally stepped up to the
plate meaningfully" which could help head off further trouble.
"If
the ECB convinces markets that it is providing a reliable safety net
for solvent sovereigns which stay on the reform path, it may lure more
investors back into these markets," he said.
"In that case, the ECB may not have to buy many bonds."
Draghi's
comments Thursday disappointed markets expecting immediate action but
on Friday, it was the complete reverse with Madrid and Milan soaring by
6.0 percent and more -- albeit helped too by better-than-expected US
jobs data.
Borrowing rates for Spain and Italy remained dangerously high, however, but were down sharply after spiking on Thursday.
The
ECB chief also stipulated that it would only intervene if Europe's
rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Fund, and its permanent
successor, the European Stability Mechanism, were also involved.
This
would require countries in dire straits asking for bailouts, which go
hand-in-hand with strict reform conditions and targets -- hard to
swallow medicine for any government.
Erik Nielsen of Unicredit
said he was concerned by such strings attached to aid and predicted a
potential dilemma in the event of a government failing to reach
agreement with the EFSF/ESM.
"Do they stick with their new
doctrine and refrain from intervening and accept what could well be
sovereign default, or do they risk their credibility?" he said,
describing the potential catch-22.
However, the principle of
conditionality is important, especially for the German central bank, the
Bundesbank, which has repeatedly stressed its opposition to the
bond-buying programme.
The bank, representing the interests of
the eurozone's top economy and paymaster, argues that such moves in
effect subsidise public deficits, run counter to the ECB's statutes and
pose a serious threat to price stability.
But in an environment
in which there seems little imminent danger of high inflation, German
public opinion seems to be changing, according to a running theme in
several newspaper editorials.
"In light of the drama (in the
eurozone), you have to say that the narrow view of the Bundesbank no
longer corresponds to the current reality in Europe," the daily
Sueddeutsche Zeitung said.
Business daily Handelsblatt voiced
concerns that the Bundesbank could end up isolated, particularly as
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her trusted finance minister,
Wolfgang Schaeuble, welcomed Draghi's much-heralded pledge last week to
"do everything" within the ECB's statutes to protect the euro.
"They
have done and continue to do whatever they can within fairly strict
limits imposed on them," said Gilles Moec of Deutsche Bank said, noting
that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England had more room to
manoeuvre.
"Draghi went as far as he could, in our view, to
indicate in no uncertain terms that massive ECB support would be
available as soon as the potential recipient countries -- presumably
Spain and Italy -- accept to trigger the European support procedure."
In
an upbeat assessment, Moec said that the ECB had "changed the way the
current sovereign turmoil should be seen ... Draghi in our view is on
his way to deliver on his promises from last week."
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