SINGAPORE - Singapore is expected to use its Feb 17 budget to help
its citizens cope with rising costs through grants and one-time
payments, but businesses are set to face new measures making it harder
to hire cheap foreign workers.
The budget for the fiscal year beginning April 2012 is also expected
to include increased spending on the city-state's infrastructure as it
stuggles to cope with a sharp increase in population over the past five
years.
Singapore, a major Asian hub for banks and multinationals, is facing
pressure from citizens to tighten immigration and cap the number of
foreigners, who now make up a third of the island's 5.2 million people.
Last year, Singapore-based companies employed an extra 79,800
foreigners - mainly from countries such as China and the Philippines -
more than double the 36,600 increase in local employment, according to
Singapore's Manpower Ministry.
Many Singaporeans blame the influx for overcrowding on roads and
trains as well as competition for jobs that has kept real wages for
lower-skilled workers stagnant during the past decade.
"Recent budgets have thus sprung more negative surprises on
companies, with stricter foreign worker policies, including stricter
quotas and increases in foreign worker levies," said Bank of America
Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin.
"Greater attention on Singaporeans and lower-income households means
that fiscal surpluses have been largely shared with individuals, and
less so with companies, compared to the past," he added.
Singapore enjoys huge surpluses so Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam is under no pressure to rein in spending.
Chua said Singapore will likely report an overall budget surplus of
around S$4 billion ($3.2 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2011 -
or about 1.2 per cent of GDP - far higher than the government's initial
estimate of about S$100 million.
Citigroup's Kit Wei Zheng said Singapore's overall fiscal surplus
would be as high as S$26 billion if the government included as revenue
proceeds from land sales as well as interest and dividend income from
its investments.
In Singapore, income from government land sales is booked directly
into reserves and not reflected as revenue in the annual budgets. Citi
estimates Singapore collected nearly S$10 billion in land sales in the
10 months to January 2012.
Budget steps
Singapore's economy contracted by 4.9 per cent in October-December on
a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised basis and
Tharman has warned growth will likely be weak in the next two years.
Inflation remains elevated at above 5 per cent, however, which means
authorities will have to tread carefully to avoid stoking spending.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has promised his government will
improve the train and bus network and build more apartments to house
young Singaporeans.
The government, together with subway operator SMRT , recently said it
is investing about S$600 million to upgrade its signal system and add
trains. Authorities are also spending about S$750 million over the next
five years to bolster flood defences.
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, Singapore's No 2 lender, said the
government will, as in previous years, supplement the salaries of
low-income workers and put more money into retirement accounts.
OCBC said businesses could get rental rebates from government
landlords and larger tax breaks and subsidies on training and other
moves to boost productivity, which rose by an average of just 1 per cent
per annum in the decade to 2010.
Singapore suffers from low productivity growth, compared with other
developed countries, due in part to past policies that made it easy for
firms to recruit cheap workers from abroad rather than invest in
training or automation.
Productivity in the retail sector is just one-third that of the United States, according to Singapore government data.
"We expect the budget to continue pushing for this restructuring,
with few signs that the government will back away from the direction of
reducing foreign worker dependency and easing labor market tightness,"
Merrill's Chua said.
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